Problem Solving

Case study · Reviving a regional bus company: A 30-route bus company in a regional city has lost money five years running. Propose how to return it to profit.Ask the AI for information, then present after prep time. Fill gaps in the materials with assumptions.

1. AI: This case is about a bus company running 30 routes in a regional city. Ridership is falling, and it has lost money for five years. How could it return to profit?
2. Candidate: How much has ridership dropped? Does it vary by route?
3. AI: Annual ridership fell from 12 million ten years ago to 7.8 million last year.
4. Candidate: Is the drop in commuting and school trips, or daytime travel? And could I see profit and loss by route?
5. AI: School trips are roughly flat. The drop is in daytime travel by older residents. Here's profit and loss by route type.
6. AI: Take about two minutes to think. Fill gaps in the materials with assumptions.
7. Candidate: Most of the loss comes from the 24 suburban and mountain routes, I think because full-size buses run when and where few people ride. I'd switch the mountain routes to pre-booked shared taxis and move the freed-up buses and drivers to extra runs on the main city routes.
8. AI: So, shared taxis for the mountain routes. How would you handle likely pushback from residents and the local government?
9. Candidate: I'd pilot one route and measure ridership and satisfaction. I'd approach the local government with a shared goal, keeping access to doctors and shops, and ask if they'd cover part of the operating cost.
10. AI: How would you check that more runs on the main routes really bring more riders?
11. Candidate: I'd compare ridership in the added time slots with the same month last year. I'd also survey how many people drive because the wait for a bus is too long.
12. AI: Thank you. Finally, how would you sum it up for the CEO in one sentence?
13. Candidate: Instead of cutting loss-making routes across the board, match transport to each area and put the freed-up capacity into the routes people actually ride.

Market sizing · Sizing an office snack service: Estimate annual sales for one snack shelf in an office of about 50 employees.Set your own assumptions and explain your estimate. The AI probes your numbers.

1. AI: This case is about an office snack service. Estimate a year's sales for one snack shelf in an office of about 50 employees.
2. Candidate: Do people pay for snacks on the spot? And are there work-from-home days?
3. AI: Yes, snacks cost about ¥100 to ¥150 each, paid on the spot. Make your own assumption about working from home. Take about two minutes to think.
4. AI: Time's up. What's your estimate for annual sales?
5. Candidate: About ¥260,000 a year per location. I assumed 50 users, 60% in the office, 30% buying on a given day, ¥120 average price, and 245 business days.
6. AI: Your breakdown is clear. Why did you count only the people in the office?
7. Candidate: People who don't pass the shelf can't buy, so I counted only those in the office, not anyone working from home.
8. AI: So you chose that base for a reason. Where does the 30% come from?
9. Candidate: From my own workplace. I'd say about one in three people get a bit hungry in the afternoon.
10. AI: So it's from your own experience. If you split that 30% into daily and once-a-month buyers, would the picture change?
11. Candidate: It would. Probably 20% are regulars who make most purchases, and the rest buy occasionally.
12. AI: So a small group of regulars carries the sales. Then what affects this shelf's sales most?
13. Candidate: How many days the regulars come in. If the in-office rate falls to 50%, their chances to buy drop with it.

New business · A stationery maker's new business: A stationery maker focused on student notebooks and writing tools wants a new core business. Propose one it could launch within three years.Ask the AI for information, then present after prep time. Fill gaps in the materials with assumptions.

1. AI: This case is about a stationery maker focused on student notebooks and writing tools. With fewer children, it's looking for a new core business. Propose one it could launch within three years.
2. Candidate: Let me start with the current business. How much have student sales fallen?
3. AI: Student product sales fell from ¥42 billion in 2017 to ¥33 billion last year.
4. Candidate: What strengths does it have that others don't?
5. AI: Here are the strengths from internal research. Take about two minutes to think.
6. Candidate: I'd use its writing technology and a brand young people know to offer working adults tools for “thinking by hand”: slightly premium notebooks and pens for meetings and planning, sold by online subscription.
7. AI: So, working adults. Why that market over the other options?
8. Candidate: People who used its products as students are now working adults. Its edge over other ideas, I think, is that people who know the brand will pay a bit more.
9. AI: Many working adults probably write on computers and phones. Will handwriting tools still sell?
10. Candidate: That's why I'd focus on moments when people organize their thinking. I'd have about 50 working adults try it, check what share keep using it, then expand.
11. AI: Finally, how would you sum it up for the management team in one sentence?
12. Candidate: It brings “thinking tools” for work to fans who've known the brand since school. We'd start small, confirm people keep using them, then expand.

Investment decision · Investing in a historic inn: Should we invest in a 90-year-old, 40-room traditional inn in a hot-spring town? Walk us through your reasoning.Ask the AI for information and use the occupancy and guest-mix data. Fill gaps in the materials with assumptions.

1. AI: This case is about a possible investment in a 90-year-old, 40-room traditional inn in a hot-spring town. Sales have stalled in recent years. How would you reach an investment decision?
2. Candidate: First, why have sales stalled? Do you have trends for occupancy and the average nightly rate?
3. AI: Occupancy fell from 72% in 2019, before COVID, to 58% last year. The nightly rate is about the same.
4. Candidate: Which guests have dropped off? Do you have figures by segment?
5. AI: Here's the guest share by segment. Take about two minutes to think.
6. Candidate: I think occupancy fell mainly because group travel hasn't returned, while the international share more than doubled. If the inn turns its large banquet hall into private dining rooms and sells to individual international travelers, I think it's worth it.
7. AI: So it hinges on the renovation. What would you confirm before investing?
8. Candidate: The renovation cost and the payback period. I'd also meet management to confirm they're willing to change how they sell, and have the people to do it.
9. AI: What would you do if international guests dropped off again?
10. Candidate: Private dining rooms also suit local memorial gatherings and business dinners. As a condition of investing, I'd check for uses beyond international guests.
11. AI: Finally, how would you sum it up for the investment committee in one sentence?
12. Candidate: It's worth investing if the inn stops relying on group guests, but only after confirming the renovation can pay for itself and management is committed to change.